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Monday, 4 April 2016
Gold flat in quiet trade, as China markets remain closed during festival
Gold was relatively flat on Monday in quiet trade, one session after plunging to fresh five-week lows, as markets in China remained closed for a traditional spring holiday.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery traded in a tight range between $1,216.00 and $1,224.00 an ounce before settling at $1,218.30, down $5.20 or 0.43% on the day. It came one session after gold plummeted more than $20 an ounce to its lowest level since mid-February, as upbeat U.S. jobs data increased the probability that the Federal Reserve could implement multiple interest rate hikes before the end of the year. Gold futures have closed lower in three consecutive sessions and eight of the last 11. Despite the recent downturn, the precious metal is still up by more than 14% since the start of the year and is coming off its strongest opening quarter in three decades.
Gold likely gained support at $1,063.20, the low from January 4 and was met with resistance at $1,280.70, the high from Mar. 11.
Investors in Asia await Tuesday's release of China's monthly Caixin Services PMI index in March for further indications on the health of the struggling manufacturing sector in the world's second-largest economy. It will be followed be a closely-watched release of the nation's monthly foreign exchange reserves on Wednesday, as analysts continue to gauge the strength of the yuan for spillover effects into the global economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has rattled global foreign exchange markets twice over the last nine months with unexpected devaluation of its currency.
Chinese markets were closed on Monday in celebration of the Qingming Festival, an annual holiday devoted to paying respect to the deceased. China is the world's largest producer of gold and is the world's second-largest consumer of the yellow metal behind India.
Elsewhere, investors continued to digest an optimistic March U.S. jobs report from the end of last week, which provided broad signals of improved labor market conditions nationwide. For the month, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 215,000 in March, eclipsing consensus estimates of 210,000 and building on an upwardly revised 245,000 figure a month earlier. In addition, average hourly earnings jumped by 0.3% for the month, while the labor force participation rate also increased by 0.1 to 63%. Although the employment rate inched up by 0.1 to 5.0%, it still remains near eight-year lows from the previous two months.
The report came in the wake of hawkish indications from Fed chair Janet Yellen that the U.S. central bank will express caution in approving further rate hikes against a backdrop of heightened global economic and financial risks. A wave of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers, including Yellen are scheduled to speak later this week. On Monday, Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren said he expects the Fed to resume a path of gradual tightening "sooner than implied by financial market futures," if the economy continues to exhibit moderate recovery."
Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bearish for gold which struggles to compete with high yield bearing assets in rising rate environments.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was also relatively flat in U.S. afternoon trading at 94.51, down 0.07% on the session. The index remains near five-month lows.
Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.
Silver for May delivery fell 0.086 or 0.57% to $14.960 an ounce.
Copper for May delivery lost 0.023 or 1.06% to 2.140 a pound.
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